USC @ Michigan prediction: Odds, best bets, player news, and stats for Saturday, September 21

Michigan limps into this contest after getting spanked by Texas in Week 2 with a morose passing game that ranks 128th in Net YPA, 114th in EPA/dropback and 111th in success rate. They will turn to dual-threat QB Alex Orji to jumpstart the offense, though Michigan could be without their primary aerial weapon TE Colston Loveland due to injury. Their defense has once again been very stout on the line, ranking 15th in rushing success rate. However a leaky pass defense is allowing a 64% completion rate (99th) and 44% passing success rate (101st), with 17.4% of completions going for 20+ yards (92nd).

USC enters their first Big Ten conference matchup with a 2-0 record and a statement victory over LSU in Week 1. The Trojan offense led by HC Lincoln Riley is once again a high performing unit, ranking 5th in success rate and 15th in EPA/Play. On the other side of the ball, new DC D’Anton Lynn has been tasked with improving a woeful USC defense that ranked 109th in defensive SP+. The Trojans currently rank 67th in defensive SP+ and 6th in rushing success rate, both stark improvements. However, their Pass D is still very much a work in progress, allowing a 52% passing success rate (128th) and ranking 102nd in QBR allowed.

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Game details and How to watch 2024 USC @ Michigan Saturday

– Date: Saturday, September 21st, 2024
– Time: 3:30 PM EST
– Site: Michigan Stadium
– City: Ann Arbor, Michigan
– TV/Streaming: CBS

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Latest Game odds for USC @ Michigan

The latest odds as of Thursday morning via BetMGM:

• Moneyline: USC -210, Michigan +170

• Spread: USC -6 (+100)

• Total: 44 points

  *odds courtesy of BetMGM

The market opened at USC -6.5 and while MGM is at -6 the line is showing significant fluctuation and is down to -4.5 in some spots. The game total has plummeted from 47.5 at open to 44 at time of publishing, indicating the public thinks Michigan can slow down the pace and lean on USC with their run game to keep the game close.

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NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

“I watched every one of Alex Orji’s seven dropbacks this season. His throws are going to be well-scripted and carefully chosen especially between the 20’s where Orji will be protected from making layered or field-side throws. USC ranks 127th over the last three years with 5.4% of their rushes going for 20+ yards, so it’s no small task to keep up with rapid-fire HC Lincoln Riley offenses. I think Michigan can grind out this game and keep USC’s offense at bay enough to keep this contest UNDER 44.5 Points.”

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

Highest Ticket %

• Ohio State 16.4%

• Georgia 12.0%

• Texas 10.2%

Highest Handle %

• Ohio State 17.1%

• Georgia 15.7%

• Alabama 12.8%

Biggest Liabilities

Quarterback matchup for USC @ Michigan

• USC: So far, so good for USC in replacing former Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Caleb Williams, as Miller Moss has led a reformed Trojans offense to a 61% passing success rate (6th) while completing 72% of his throws. Moss’ 90.8 PFF passing grade ranks fourth nationally with a commendable 12.5% pressure-to-sack rate and 5-to-1 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate through two contests. While they’re not as fierce as the National Championship unit of 2023, Michigan’s defense is a massive step-up in competence from Utah State and LSU. I’m very interested to see how Moss handles the first hostile, Big Ten road environment of his career.

• Michigan: The Davis Warren era has mercifully ended at Michigan, who now move onto the quarterback everyone assumed would win the job in the first place, Alex Orji. A short-yardage rushing QB specialist in 2023, Orji carried 14 times for 88 yards and a touchdown while not attempting a pass. This year he has come in for spot work over the first three weeks, dropping back seven times while completing 3-of-6 passes for 15 yards and two touchdowns during his appearances. Both of his touchdowns were on inside the 5-yard line play action passes to wide open receivers streaking across the formation for easy scores, pretty basic stuff. In the open field, Orji has looked decidedly less comfortable in the small sample size we’ve seen from him. His “solo-threat” profile foreshadows an even more run-heavy script than usual from a Wolverine offense that ranks 128th in pace of play.

Trojans and Wolverines Player news & recent stats

– Far and away the most potent weapon for the Wolverines passing attack, TE Colston Loveland’s status for the game is in question. Loveland leads the team with 24 targets and his 19 receptions is more than double second-place WR Semaj Morgan’s 9 reception total.

–  Edge Josaiah Stewart leads Michigan in pressures (7) and stops (10) while not recording a single missed tackle over the first three games. His 85th percentile PFF defensive grade leads the team, while projected first round NFL CB Will Johnson sports a modest 71st% cover grade allowing a 67% completion rate so far.

– A prolific weapon out of the backfield, USC RB Woody Marks has been targeted 100 times for an average of 4.5 targets per game since the 2022 season, the most among active Power Four rushers. Cal RB Jaydn Ott ranks a close second with 94 targets.

– Since the start of the 2022 season, USC leads the FBS in receptions of 20+ yards with 132. SMU checks in second with 120, while Washington is right there with 119.

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