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Week 11 Care/Don’t Care: These aren’t your same old Chargers

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Week 11 Care/Don’t Care: These aren’t your same old Chargers

What started out looking like it would be a smooth ride to an easy victory for the Los Angeles Chargers turned into a wild journey in a 34-27 win over the Bengals. And yet, it ended in the perfect fashion to show these aren’t the same old Los Angeles Chargers.

This version of the franchise is a true contender.

In years past, this game would result in a loss. For one reason or another, the volatility that hung over the franchise like a curse would sink them to a defeat that seemed impossible based on how the game began. Not the 2024 Chargers.

The Chargers defense pulled the right levers late in the game. Timely pressures, tight coverages and critical stops kept the dam from breaking as the Bengals offense tried to mount the final assault late in the fourth quarter. This was the rare time this season the Chargers have played a high-end quarterback. The name of the game wasn’t blanking Joe Burrow for the entire game, and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter called the game in that fashion in the closing moments.

No team was more passive on defense over the last few seasons than Los Angeles and their approach to the Bengals showed why Minter has reversed course. The Chargers hit Burrow a whopping 13 times, most among quarterbacks in Week 11, despite blitzing on just 14% of his dropbacks.

The volatility was even better expressed on offense. Everything was clicking in the first half, and it fell to pieces for most of the second half. However, the approach never changed. The Chargers never stopped attacking down the field.

During the offseason, the fantasy community missed on the hidden gems in the Chargers offense because they were obsessed over the loss of passing volume with the coaching staff change. That volume under previous coaches was mostly empty calories brought on by pace for pace’s sake and underneath passes in the pursuit of faux efficiency. In this Chargers offense, Justin Herbert has been unleashed as a downfield passer, which is far more critical than any volume stat.

Herbert came into the week averaging the highest yards per completion mark of his career. With 297 yards on just 17 completions in this win, that gap should only grow. Herbert’s 12.9 air yards per attempt led all quarterbacks in Week 11. You couldn’t say that about Herbert at many other points during his NFL career and anyone who paid close attention to this team knew how frustrating that felt.

Herbert’s complete control of this offense is also well expressed in his willingness to take off and run. He’s unlocked a new ceiling to the offense and his individual fantasy outlook with his rushing upside in recent games. In Week 11, his 66 yards off scrambles led all quarterbacks; talk about yet another new dimension for the Chargers’ star passer.

With the Chargers offense leaning into volatility in the passing game and Herbert unfurling deep shots into efficient concepts, we’re seeing players unlocked in the receiver room.

This should go down as a statement game for rookie Ladd McConkey, who once again led the team in targets and looks every bit the part of a superstar receiver. The most impressive part of McConkey’s game is his downfield route running, which is a perfect fit for this attack, along with an unleashed Herbert. You no longer need to include him in “start/sit” debates.

While there’s still volatility in some of the contributing players like Quentin Johnston and Will Dissly, these players are offering previously unforeseen quality reps to an offense that was regarded as bereft of talent. It’s past time to recalibrate those offseason expectations.

Everything about the 2024 Chargers has felt different than the ghosts of the franchise’s past. It’s a credit to Jim Harbaugh and how he’s changed the culture. It’s also a reminder that leaning into volatility and the pursuit of explosives is how you truly unlock players. If you’re wondering why we’re seeing the best version of Justin Herbert this season, look no further.

It’s hard to argue against Lamar Jackson’s individual play over the course of the season when it comes to MVP debates. However, the award usually goes to the quarterback on the best team, and Jackson’s Ravens fell to second place in their own division in Week 11. Elsewhere in the AFC, the Bills took down the previously undefeated Chiefs, as Josh Allen firmly inserted himself into one of the top spots of the race.

We’re an exceptionally long way off from any final decisions being made about who is the Most Valuable Player of the 2024 NFL season. But I know having signature moments goes a long way toward capturing the voters. It’s hard to script a better signature moment than Allen calling game against the Chiefs on a fourth-down run.

Allen totaled 45 yards and that game-winning score on five scrambles in Week 11. Allen added 3.99 EPA on scrambles against the Chiefs, a top-five mark among quarterbacks this week. This is classic Josh Allen against Kansas City. Allen has scrambled at a higher rate (10.9%) against the Chiefs compared to all other opponents (6.9%) in his career, per Next Gen Stats. Across all of those off-script runs, it’ll be difficult to find one more consequential to earning a win than his scamper in Week 11.

Another tell-tale sign of an MVP is elevating the talent around you. Week 11 was just another installment of Allen doing just that, and it’s more consequential to the Bills’ long-term success as a team than his fourth-down scramble.

Despite missing Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, and Amari Cooper only running a route on 53.3% of the dropbacks, the Bills activated multiple pass-catchers. Khalil Shakir was his usual efficient self as the layup target, Dawson Knox led the team in routes and Allen hit one beauty of a deep shot to Cooper down the sideline.

Yet, it was the play of Curtis Samuel that stood out to me. Samuel has been dogged with a preseason turf toe and other injuries all season but finally looks healthy. He ran a route on 68.9% of the dropbacks as a primary outside receiver and was the man coverage perimeter separator this team brought him in to be in free agency.

If Samuel can finally become an impact player for the Bills, Cooper gets healthier and Coleman can get back in the game in a week or so, we’re starting to talk some real depth. The fact that Allen is the type of quarterback who can get them all in the mix is dangerous.

Of course, all of this will ring hollow if the Bills don’t take down the Chiefs in a postseason rematch that both teams spoke of as an unavoidable inevitability after the game. Allen and the Bills want Super Bowls, not Week 11 wins or even MVP awards. In order to get to that final destination, proving you’re the type of team Buffalo showed itself to be in Week 11 does matter.

The Steelers have still been treated like something of a gimmick by certain sections of the football world. Some of that is likely a ripple effect of the quarterback skepticism and profiling based on how this team has won games the previous couple of seasons. Week 11’s win over their red-hot division rival provides an excellent moment for the doubters to recalibrate to what this team is now.

The 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t an oddity or some result of Mike Tomlin’s “dark arts” coaching. This is just a straight-up good football operation.

Now, that doesn’t mean they’re a complete team, specifically on offense. The Russell Wilson revival has been enjoyable to watch, but as I’ve pointed out, he’s primarily a touchdown-to-checkdown quarterback right now. All of the big plays come on deep shots down the sideline to George Pickens. They got one of those on a 37-yard go route in the fourth quarter that Wilson couldn’t have placed any better had he walked down the sideline and handed it to Pickens. That was the only pass of 15-plus yards they hit in this win.

Next Gen Stats notes that Wilson went 20 of 24 for 126 yards on passes under 10 air yards. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both caught four passes and tight end Darnell Washington was once again a weapon in the flats. Along with the deep shots and slants to Pickens, that’s been the entirety of the Steelers’ passing game under Wilson.

It’s this precise reality that explains why Wilson, who was an extremely popular fantasy quarterback streamer, didn’t take advantage of a Ravens defense that was ceding big plays at an alarming rate. The perimeter corners make mistakes at the catch point but otherwise play tight coverage along the boundary, which is why Wilson only drilled one of the go routes to Pickens. Most of Baltimore’s big plays allowed have been the intermediate shots over the middle, resulting from coverage errors by the linebackers and miscommunication in zones.

The Steelers just don’t use that area of the field.

My guess is that, because Wilson didn’t carve up this beatable Ravens defense and they won a scrap with a funky final score, this will get sorted as another “Mike Tomlin nonsense” win for Pittsburgh. That misses the quality parts of this team.

Wilson to Pickens is an advantage that feels inevitable regarding the deep strikes on non-Ravens defenses. Also, the Steelers have a genuinely great defense that can stymie any passing attack paired with a run game that can keep game scripts in their favor. Maybe Pittsburgh doesn’t have a championship ceiling this season but the foundation is real and the team will be a part of the AFC mix all the way to January.

One of the biggest questions I had coming into Week 11 was surrounding Jaxon Smith-Njigba. We saw him have a monster performance in a Seahawks loss prior to the bye while getting the type of downfield targets we never see go his way. That felt like a missed opportunity to maximize him as a slot weapon.

My opinion doesn’t matter. What’s consequential is whether his coaches view him as that player and would choose to activate him as a priority pass-catcher with DK Metcalf back from injury. Week 11 was a positive indicator that they do share that optimism for him as a talent.

It’s hard to tell for sure just off the broadcast copy but it sure felt like Smith-Njigba’s targets were more intentional in Week 11. When Geno Smith was in trouble or needed a clutch catch, he went to No. 11. JSN ran 10 routes on third down and was targeted on five for four catches, 52 yards and four first downs.

I’m buying this performance as true signal combined with what we saw before the bye week. I don’t think JSN has been an actively bad player on film at any point, despite some of the tenor of disappointment surrounding his first two and a half seasons by the fantasy community. What we’ve seen lately looks much more like the type of deployment I saw as his best fit based on his prospect profile. Based on his route-running, he’s always been capable of this; now, the football is finding him.

The Seahawks offense has been a voluminous unit but not always too efficient. Having JSN step up as a critical chain-mover and intermediate separator can be the missing ingredient that Geno Smith needed to access the full upside case of Ryan Grubb’s offense.

The way Anthony Richardson’s benching was messaged from the Colts to the outside world will always be confusing and made them an easy target for jokes. That said, in a game that’s about results, seeing their young quarterback have perhaps his best outing of the season in his first game back under center must have been a huge relief.

Outside of a fumble, Richardson didn’t kill the Colts with any major mistakes and was accurate to all three levels of the field. That’s the first time we could say that about Richardson over the course of a full game in 2024. His 9.73 adjusted yards per attempt was his best since Week 1 and this result wasn’t inflated by big plays. Richardson was at his best on the game-winning drive, including going two-for-two on downfield throws, per Next Gen Stats.

It’s even more impressive that Richardson did this on a day when the Colts’ run game was non-existent. Jonathan Taylor averaged 2.4 yards per carry and didn’t record a rush longer than 10 yards. Instead, it was Richardson who was the most effective rusher, especially on his game-winning score.

The Jets defense isn’t the same unit from previous seasons but they attempted to make the Colts offense stall out with Richardson under center. Not only did they shut down the run game but they pressured Richardson on 47% of his dropbacks. That heat didn’t send the quarterback into a tailspin.

We don’t yet know how the Anthony Richardson story will end but after today, he should get his chance to write the tale on his own terms. He’s back in control of his own destiny. He proved today he should get the rest of the season to further develop and grow with the talented players around him.

The Colts’ brass and anyone invested in these wide receivers can feel better that the rest of the journey won’t be as rocky as it got in the darker moments this season.

I’m trying to live in the moment with the Bengals.

It’s not an easy path to walk, as this team can’t quite find a way to not step on its toes. First-half dysfunction led to a storm in the second half, which ultimately ended with a pair of missed field goals late in the game, and another frustrating loss.

However, watching the offense is such a joy when everything is clicking. Having Tee Higgins on the field changes the math for Cincinnati. It also evokes emotions of dread when pondering the future of this operation.

Week 11 was the best game of a season that’s been marred by injuries for the Bengals’ franchise-tagged wideout. Higgins’ 148 yards were the most he’s recorded in 2024 and he did it by filleting a Chargers secondary that’s been well-construsted all year. One hundred and thirty of those 148 yards — and his touchdown — came against off-coverage, per Next Gen Stats. It was clear from several broadcast looks that the Chargers were applying hard doubles to Chase, which left Higgins in some brackets and free-release situations. Whenever Burrow found him in one of those off-coverage spots, Higgins smoked the Chargers.

Sunday night was a reminder of how difficult this offense can be to deal with when they have The Big Three firing on all cylinders and ancillary players stepping up. Chase Brown being an answer as a checkdown option for teams playing coverage against the wideouts has been a lifesaver for Burrow. He helps move the chains.

And yet, this all feels fleeting, and the losing makes it harder to stay in the moment. As much as we can try to remain in this moment and enjoy a truly spectacular offensive product, the looming realities that may split up this unique trio cloud the present. It’s hard to imagine Higgins on this team next year. Even if wide receivers can be found in the NFL Draft every season, his particular dimension isn’t easily replicated and, so far, none of the admittedly useful young guys have looked the part of a Higgins understudy.

It’s a shame that the 2024 season feels like a missed opportunity for the Bengals, as it’s likely the final chapter of this group altogether. It’s even more painful that other answers have emerged in the passing game beyond Higgins and Chase.

Perhaps the only right answer is just to live in the moment and enjoy the ride until it’s over.

The beginning of Bo Nix’s rookie season wasn’t always pretty. There were some rough moments in the first month. You can say that and still acknowledge just how well he’s played over the last month.

Since Week 8, Nix has completed over 72% of his passes and is a top-10 quarterback by adjusted net yards per attempt. For a stretch of the season, it looked like Nix would get himself into the fantasy streaming category among quarterbacks due to his rushing. But over the last four weeks, he’s only accounted for 60 yards on the ground and has instead been one of the cleanest passers in the game from a statistical standpoint.

There is a lot at play here to account for Nix’s recent surge.

After last season, and some of the early 2024 film, it was hard to know exactly what Sean Payton’s offense wanted to be in the modern NFL. The unit has looked much more cohesive of late as Payton has cut out some concepts and wrinkles that didn’t seem to sit well with Nix. In the last few weeks, Nix has thrown into some cavernous windows thanks to well-designed route combinations. Next Gen Stats notes that Nix went 22 of 25 on throws of farther than 10 air yards for a season-high 169 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11. He hasn’t forced things and is just executing the offense.

Nix’s ball placement has stood out to me every time I watch this offense. He’s set up all of these Broncos players well for yards-after-catch opportunities. It doesn’t create a highlight-reel full of eye-popping throws, but it does make for efficient offense. We’ve seen multiple Broncos players activated during the last month. Even if it’s a skill-position group that isn’t filled with stars, it has a good number of guys making an impact.

The Broncos are a good team. Their defense completely blanked the Falcons in Week 11 while their quarterback played efficient football on the other side. His Week 11 demolition of the Atlanta Falcons felt like an exclamation point to a great run that could end in a playoff push.

Week 11 was a critical data point for the Miami Dolphins offense. With a matchup against an utterly beatable Raiders team and their generous secondary, we needed to see the offensive attack have a takeover game to take it seriously the rest of the season.

After 34 points and a hyper-efficient outing from Tua Tagovailoa, we can call this one a successful mission. I’m sure there will once again be fantasy complaints lodged about the lack of a dominant statistical output from the Dolphins’ wide receiver duo, but that isn’t what matters.

My point all along, amid the weeping over the lack of production for Jaylen Waddle and the lower-than-expected output for Tyreek Hill, is that the plays designed for other options have been good. Week 11 was an excellent showcase of it.

Jonnu Smith was absolutely electric in Week 11 and has been a source of efficiency all season. The tight end ran a route on a team-high 94.6% of the team’s dropbacks. All of his catches went for a first down or touchdown and he averaged 9.8 yards after the catch per reception. Miami has needed someone for each of the last few seasons to take advantage of the space created by the speed of the wideouts. Smith has been that guy.

Elsewhere, I think Mike McDaniel has gotten carried away with designing touches in the passing game for De’Von Achane at times this season. It didn’t feel that way this week but he caught all four of his looks and averaged 0.99 EPA per target while operating as the clear lead back. That feels like the right balance for Achane.

A guy like Malik Washington has been used to supplement the passing game behind the line of scrimmage and serve as yet another piece of eye candy for Miami.

An offense that’s been one of the most highly concentrated over the last few seasons has spread out. More options have emerged for the Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa and that’s not changing. What needs to shift is your expectations for the two star wide receivers. We’re past time for that to take place.

No one in the building will agree with this but wins and losses no longer matter in the big picture for the Bears. Saving Matt Eberflus’ job isn’t the priority. The vast majority of the evidence points to the fact that this staff has run its course in Chicago and I don’t think much could take place from here on out that would change that fate.

What matters is redirecting the way Caleb Williams’ rookie season has been trending out of the bye. It’s about figuring out what he does well and ensuring he gets productive reps for the rest of the season. Despite the loss, Week 11 proved to be a good step in that direction.

In the first game without Shane Waldron, Chicago had its best total EPA performance on offense, and it looked like some minor adjustments were made in the passing game.

The Bears had Williams line up in the shotgun on 66% of his dropbacks and put an emphasis on the quick game. Williams got the ball out of his hands at the fastest pace of any game this season, per Next Gen Stats. He went 15 of 18 on quick passes and kept the ball moving down the field. It sure seemed like new play-caller Thomas Brown emphasized getting the ball out of Williams’ hands and making those layup throws more available to alleviate pressure on the rookie, both literally and figuratively. The Bears allowed just eight pressures on the day, the lowest of the season.

Williams feeling more confident in the offense was best expressed in a career-best rushing performance. When something wasn’t there for Williams in the passing game, he was quick to scramble and was incredibly effective when doing it. Williams scrambled five times for 49 yards, a career-high, and totaled 4.63 EPA on those runs. For the first time in months, it felt like Williams was playing loose and decisive.

I hate to minimize wins and losses because that is the whole point of the sport. And there’s no question that having what should have been the game-winning field goal less than a month after the Hail Mary loss to Washington is just another brutal chapter in a mentally draining season. However, Williams having a performance like this in a game that Chicago ultimately couldn’t win still goes down as a positive outing.

After perhaps his worst game of the season, Matthew Stafford enjoyed a significant statistical bounce-back with four passing touchdowns and 10.9 yards per attempt. The Patriots put up a fight but ultimately, the Rams took the road win, largely due to the prolific afternoon from their passing attack.

While it was an impressive outing with several highlight reel throws to multiple pass-catchers, I’m not sure this performance answered any of our questions about the Rams after last Monday.

As I wrote in my Week 11 preview piece, Stafford was one of the worst starting quarterbacks when pressured in the first 10 weeks of the season. Getting his top receivers back didn’t solve all the problems, as Stafford’s volatility when teams heat him up has remained a problem. The Patriots tried to exploit this weakness by blitzing Stafford on a whopping 44% of his dropbacks. However, all that extra rush didn’t move the needle, as he was under pressure in just 22.2% of dropbacks. For this week, the Rams were able to give Stafford the time he needed, and he found the holes in the secondary.

Stafford got the ball out hyper-fast and still pushed it down the field. He averaged a 2.28-second time to throw and 10.7 air yards per attempt. You don’t see that combination too often. Getting the ball out fast can be an answer to beating pressure and when you have receivers who can separate quickly at the breakpoint of routes, you can pull it off.

Will this work against a more talented defense with a high-end pass rush? That will be the question going forward with Los Angeles.

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