Week 12 Booms and Busts: Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams lose, but help fantasy managers win the day

Hope. It’s the last thing left in Pandora’s Box. It’s the undercurrent theme all through “The Shawshank Redemption.” And it’s what NFL teams and fans cling to when a young quarterback is drafted. Give us a reason to believe tomorrow will be better than today.

It’s been an up-and-down season for rookie quarterbacks, as expected. But the two biggest tickets showed improvement in Week 12’s early window.

Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams didn’t earn real-life wins Sunday, but they helped plenty of fantasy managers. When the early window closed, Daniels was at the top of the quarterback board (32.4 points) and Williams ranked third (26.9 points). A nifty comeback week when one was desperately needed.

Both players were in catch-up mode in the second half, which can be nectar of the fantasy gods. The Commanders scored 23 points after halftime against Dallas (including 17 in a chaotic final period) and the Bears used 17 fourth-quarter points and the rare onside-kick recovery to force overtime against Minnesota. We can’t call it garbage time when a comeback actually works. Washington would have tied Dallas late if not for a botched extra point.

Daniels had a better fantasy game than a real-life one. He was intercepted twice and only had 57 yards passing at halftime. The most encouraging sign was the return of his running game (7-74-1); he was an ineffective and sometimes reluctant runner the previous two weeks. I openly speculated that perhaps his rib injury hadn’t completely healed, but he looked fine against Dallas.

The Daniels bottom line was boosted when the Cowboys allowed a gift 86-yard score to Terry McLaurin in the final minute of the game; you could write a book on how poorly Dallas defended that play. But fantasy managers won’t apologize or give the points back. After scoring about 13 points a week over a five-game stretch, Daniels was back in business.

The upcoming schedule is medium — Tennessee, a bye week and then New Orleans to open the fantasy playoffs in Week 15. The Titans and Saints are middle of the pack with respect to QB points allowed. Daniels gets a Week 16 challenge against Philadelphia, then closes with a home date against Atlanta. Bottom line, if he’s willing to run, we’re willing to play him.

Daniels was needed more Sunday with Brian Robinson Jr. (5-13-0) getting dinged up early. We appreciated the two touchdowns passes going to fantasy staples McLaurin (5-102-1) and old reliable Zach Ertz (6-38-1).

Williams had a better real-life game than Daniels did — he threw for 340 yards and didn’t turn the ball over against the respected Vikings defense. He took a modest three sacks against the blitz-happy Minnesota scheme, although one of them was a hold-the-ball killer in overtime. There were two touchdown passes, the first for Williams since Week 6 — and 33 resourceful scrambling yards.

I don’t know where the Thomas Brown story is headed, but he seems much more in sync with Williams than departed OC Shane Waldron ever was. And as usual, the Bears kept the target tree gloriously compact — 42 of the 47 targets went to the Big Four of Keenan Allen (15), Cole Kmet (10), Rome Odunze (10) and DJ Moore (seven). Fantasy being the silly game it is sometimes, Moore had the best return (7-106-1 for 23.4 fantasy points) despite the smallest workload. He also caught a two-point conversion. But it’s fun to see this offense trustable again.

The buzzkill for Williams fantasy managers is the upcoming schedule — it’s a sea of red. Three daunting road games are on the way — Detroit on Thanksgiving, San Francisco and then Minnesota in primetime. The Lions rematch follows in Week 16, with the Seahawks in Week 17. Hopefully, fantasy managers have a safer option to dial up at QB. But if Williams can merely show competence, it makes us more comfortable starting the critical pass-catchers in this offense. And wouldn’t it be nice?

Bo Nix, passer, is here to stay

Sticking with the rookie QBs, Bo Nix has pulled back from his scrambling lately. But the way he’s throwing the ball, it’s a trade-off the Broncos will gladly accept.

Nix played a clean and efficient game at Las Vegas, throwing for 273 yards and two scores in a 10-point victory. Nix didn’t have any turnovers and took just one sack, keeping the offense on schedule. The passing was essential, because Denver ran for just 63 yards and 2.9 a carry (backfield bingo is no fun when Sean Payton is calling out the numbers). Nix is one of the league’s most improved players over the past two months.

Fantasy managers miss his rushing backboard, of course. Nix has just 10 yards on the ground the past three games, and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 7. But boundary specialist Courtland Sutton is taking off as Nix gets his sea legs; Sutton had two touchdown catches Sunday and is on a 36-467-3 binge in the last five games. Maybe Sutton is the new Doug Baldwin, the most underrated receiver in the league.

Is it too late for Nix to get into the Rookie of the Year mix? He’s been better than Daniels over the last several weeks. Both Denver and Washington look headed towards surprising playoff berths. Denver hosts Cleveland in Week 13, then takes a Week 14 bye. A juicy Cincinnati matchup (Week 17) is waiting at the end of the fantasy playoffs.

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Speed Round

• By the end of the day, Saquon Barkley’s detonation game was obviously the biggest story in fantasy. It will be interesting to see how the NFL and fantasy markets react to so many second-contract running backs starring for their new clubs. Barkley’s smashing for Philly, Josh Jacobs had a hat trick for Green Bay, Derrick Henry is a weekly touchdown for Baltimore. Obviously it underscores how important it is for players to escape bad situations whenever possible — keep in mind Barkley fled the Giants, Jacobs escaped from Vegas and Henry upgraded from Tennessee.

• I realize Kyler Murray was injured in the fourth quarter, but he basically laid an egg in a critical game for NFC West supremacy. I’m never surprised when Murray’s rushing evaporates, and I’m never surprised when he struggles to punctuate touchdown drives. Sometimes I think he’s just good enough to lose with.

• Obviously CeeDee Lamb misses Dak Prescott, but he’s absorbed a ridiculous 77 targets over the past six games, and he’s at an 18-160-0 line the last two weeks, as Cooper Rush has settled in. This type of usage can mostly offset the drop of talent at quarterback. Lamb remains a set-and-forget guy.

• I don’t know why the Cowboys don’t find other things for KaVonte Turpin to do, but that electric speed needs a bigger role. Your season is already dead, anyway. Experiment with the unknown upside of your players.

• The Jaylen Waddle splash game came out of nowhere, the type of pinball score that lifts 3-8 fantasy teams to 4-8. It’s already too late. But will the current Dolphins ever solve the Tyreek Hill problem? Hill was terrific in the season opener; here’s what he’s done in 10 games since: 42 catches, 441 yards, two touchdowns, just 10.5 YPC. The last three weeks, with Tua Tagovailoa back, Hill’s averaging 8.3 yards per reception. It boggles the mind. (Meanwhile, you’d swear Jonnu Smith was a long-lost relative of Tony Gonzalez. He looks amazing.)

• Bryce Young was composed and effective in the near-miss against an engaged Kansas City defense. In short, he has a shot. Anthony Richardson regressed against the nasty Lions defense, but both Young and Richardson benefited from their mid-season benchings, no matter how unpopular they were in the moment.

• The Bears prioritized Justin Jefferson in coverage so Sam Darnold did what a shrewd quarterback does — he torched the opponent with Jordan Addison, his second-best receiver. So many of the great quarterbacks through history would admit their favorite target was the guy with the prime matchup. Let’s not forget Addison was a first-round pick who already has 15 pro touchdowns. He also won the Fred Biletnikoff Award in college, as 2021’s best receiver. (Commonly, those players turn out to be stars. But you’ll never guess who won the award in 2022.)

• It took too long for the Giants to get Malik Nabers going, but 6-64-0 on nine targets isn’t a nightmare. It will get better. At minimum, the target share will go up.

• Is a wide usage tree going to spoil the Tampa Bay offense? Three running backs plus Baker Mayfield had ground touchdowns at the Giants. Mayfield targeted 11 different players, no one more than six times. Mike Evans is too big to fail and maybe Bucky Irving is too, but when you spread the usage this thin and you romp anyway, it doesn’t encourage changes in the immediate future.