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Week 5 Expected Points: Young receivers ready to erupt

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Week 5 Expected Points: Young receivers ready to erupt

Week 5 Byes: DET, LAC, PHI, and TEN

Running Backs

Week 4 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Alvin Kamara

NO

26.6

-1.7

24.9

Derrick Henry

BAL

24.3

11.6

35.9

Chuba Hubbard

CAR

23.4

-1.3

22.1

Aaron Jones

MIN

22.1

-4.2

17.9

Tony Pollard

TEN

20

-1.2

18.8

Kenneth Walker III

SEA

19.8

13.8

33.6

Jonathan Taylor

IND

18.7

1.1

19.8

D’Andre Swift

CHI

18.6

10.9

29.5

Chase Brown

CIN

18.6

4.6

23.2

Jordan Mason

SF

18.4

5.6

24.0

Kyren Williams

LAR

17.4

3

20.4

Brian Robinson Jr

WAS

17.2

3.1

20.3

Najee Harris

PIT

16.3

-6

10.3

Zack Moss

CIN

16

1.8

17.8

Saquon Barkley

PHI

15.8

-2.2

13.6

Jerome Ford

CLE

15.7

-0.2

15.5

Bucky Irving

TB

14.7

-2.2

12.5

Rhamondre Stevenson

NE

13.7

-3

10.7

David Montgomery

DET

13.1

1.9

15.0

Josh Jacobs

GB

13.1

-1.3

11.8

James Conner

ARI

12.7

5.6

18.3

JK Dobbins

LAC

12.7

-3.5

9.2

Javonte Williams

DEN

12.4

-2.4

10.0

De’Von Achane

MIA

12.1

-6.2

5.9

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET

11.8

8

19.8

Tyjae Spears

TEN

11.1

0.8

11.9

Justice Hill

BAL

11

10.6

21.6

Kareem Hunt

KC

10.7

-0.2

10.5

Zamir White

LV

10.4

-5.4

5.0

Dare Ogunbowale

HOU

10.2

5.2

15.4

Bijan Robinson

ATL

9.2

2.2

11.4

Travis Etienne

JAC

8.7

-1.7

7.0

Rachaad White

TB

8.6

1.8

10.4

Antonio Gibson

NE

8.4

2.5

10.9

Rico Dowdle

DAL

8

5.1

13.1

Zach Charbonnet

SEA

7.7

2.7

10.4

Miles Sanders

CAR

7.7

-0.1

7.6

Cam Akers

HOU

7

-1.7

5.3

Tank Bigsby

JAC

6.7

2.3

9.0

Tyler Allgeier

ATL

6.6

3.4

10.0

Roschon Johnson

CHI

6.1

2.5

8.6

Jeremy McNichols

WAS

5.9

14.5

20.4

Braelon Allen

NYJ

5.8

-0.2

5.6

James Cook

BUF

5.7

0.1

5.8

Jaleel McLaughlin

DEN

5.7

-0.1

5.6

Cordarrelle Patterson

PIT

5.6

2.6

8.2

Trey Benson

ARI

4.6

0.4

5.0

Samaje Perine

KC

4.5

2.9

7.4

Alexander Mattison

LV

3.5

2.5

6.0

Ty Johnson

BUF

2.1

4.2

6.3

Kareem Hunt (KC, 10.7 Expected Points)

After being away from the game throughout training camp and the first three weeks of the regular season, Kareem Hunt stepped into the Chiefs’ backfield and immediately took over as the RB1.

The volume he saw against the Chargers suggests he isn’t going away, either. Apologies to the Carson Steele truthers.

In his return to Kansas City, Hunt, 29, ran 14 times for 69 yards (4.9 YPC), and caught two passes for another 16 yards. His 11 routes run were only four fewer than Samaje Perine (15) ran, but Perine failed to draw a target in the victory.

Perine did handle the team’s only rush attempt in the green zone, which he punched in for a two-yard score, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hunt earn more opportunities in the green zone as he further acclimates himself to the offense and continues to get into football shape.

Hunt can be started where needed in Week 5 and is ranked as RotoPat’s RB19 for the week.

Antonio Gibson (NE, 8.4 Expected Points)

Antonio Gibson is steadily encroaching on Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload. His 8.4 expected fantasy points were the most he’s had all season, while his 10.9 PPR points marked the second time in three weeks that he exceeded double-digit fantasy points.

Through four games, Gibson has totaled 237 scoreless yards from scrimmage while averaging a career-best 6.6 yards per touch. It’s worth noting that 95 of those yards came on two of his 36 touches, but the Patriots have been impressed with Gibsons’ reps and are reportedly entertaining giving him more touches going forward after Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for the fourth time in four games last week.

Image 10-4-24 at 6.56 AM.jpeg

Image 10-4-24 at 6.56 AM.jpeg

Gibson has had fumbling issues of his own throughout his career. While he may not be the cure to the team’s fumbling woes, the Patriots giving him a more extended look could bode well for fantasy purposes. It may be too early to trust Gibson in Week 5’s matchup against the Dolphins, but fantasy managers needing backfield help may want to consider stashing him where available.

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Wide Receivers

Week 4 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Nico Collins

HOU

26.5

6.6

33.1

Mike Evans

TB

26.1

-2.7

23.4

Malik Nabers

NYG

24.8

-1.7

23.1

George Pickens

PIT

23.6

-5.3

18.3

Wan’Dale Robinson

NYG

23.5

-5.4

18.1

Diontae Johnson

CAR

21.9

-0.6

21.3

Rashid Shaheed

NO

21.4

-3.7

17.7

Dontayvion Wicks

GB

20.8

4

24.8

DK Metcalf

SEA

20.5

-3.1

17.4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA

20.4

-7.3

13.1

Christian Kirk

JAC

20.3

-1.2

19.1

Drake London

ATL

18.2

-5.8

12.4

Xavier Legette

CAR

17.5

2.1

19.6

Stefon Diggs

HOU

17.3

1.2

18.5

Chris Olave

NO

16.5

0.2

16.7

Tyler Lockett

SEA

16.3

-5.2

11.1

Brian Thomas Jr

JAC

16.2

5.7

21.9

Jakobi Meyers

LV

16.2

-6.3

9.9

Josh Downs

IND

15.9

6.3

22.2

Chris Godwin

TB

15.7

-2.8

12.9

Terry McLaurin

WAS

15.6

2.6

18.2

Michael Pittman Jr

IND

15.4

1.9

17.3

Tre Tucker

LV

15.2

0.2

15.4

CeeDee Lamb

DAL

15

8.6

23.6

Courtland Sutton

DEN

14.9

0.1

15.0

Tee Higgins

CIN

14.6

-2.6

12.0

Jayden Reed

GB

14.5

12.6

27.1

Jauan Jennings

SF

13.6

-1.8

11.8

Jordan Whittington

LAR

13.3

-1.1

12.2

Jerry Jeudy

CLE

13.2

0

13.2

Deebo Samuel

SF

13.1

-2.9

10.2

Amon-Ra St Brown

DET

12.9

8

20.9

Justin Jefferson

MIN

12.8

7.7

20.5

Allen Lazard

NYJ

12.7

-1.9

10.8

Garrett Wilson

NYJ

12.5

-3.4

9.1

Marvin Harrison Jr

ARI

12.2

3.3

15.5

DJ Moore

CHI

12.1

-0.9

11.2

Ladd McConkey

LAC

11.4

6.3

17.7

Ray-Ray McCloud

ATL

11.1

0.1

11.2

Ja’Marr Chase

CIN

10.7

6.8

17.5

Tutu Atwell

LAR

10.5

1.7

12.2

Olamide Zaccheaus

WAS

10

4.5

14.5

Mike Williams

NYJ

8.1

2.6

10.7

Parris Campbell

PHI

8

3.7

11.7

Jordan Addison

MIN

7.9

15

22.9

Darius Slayton

NYG

7.8

0.8

8.6

Khalil Shakir

BUF

7.7

2.5

10.2

Trey Palmer

TB

5.8

5.8

11.6

Xavier Worthy

KC

5.4

10.9

16.3

Jameson Williams

DET

2.8

13.2

16.0

Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG, 23.5 Expected Fantasy Points)

Are fantasy managers paying attention to what Wan’Dale Robinson is doing with the Giants?

The third-year receiver is being forced to play in the shadow of Malik Nabers, but Robinson is the current WR29 in fantasy points per game and is the WR5 with 63.0 expected fantasy points. He’s also fourth amongst all receivers in targets (38) and is fifth in receptions (26).

Despite these impressive totals, Robinson is still available in 38 percent of Sleeper leagues.

Robinson has only one top-24 fantasy finish on the season but has totaled double-digit fantasy points in three of his four games.

With Nabers (concussion) looking like a long shot to play in Week 5 against the Seahawks, Robinson is setting up as a smash in PPR leagues.

Image 10-4-24 at 8.04 AM.jpegImage 10-4-24 at 8.04 AM.jpeg

Image 10-4-24 at 8.04 AM.jpeg

In the unlikely chance you’re reading this and notice your league is sleeping on Robinson — which obviously would never happen — stop what you’re doing, add him, and profit in Week 5.

Dontayvion Wicks (GB, 20.8 Expected Points)

An ankle injury to Christian Watson forced second-year receiver Dontayvion Wicks into an unexpected role in Week 4 against the Vikings.

After running just 38 routes through the first three weeks of the season, Wicks stepped in to run 45 routes in last week’s loss while leading the Packers in targets (13) and finishing second in receiving yards (78). His two receiving touchdowns also led the team.

Wicks finished the week as the WR3 in PPR leagues with 24.8 fantasy points.

A fifth-round pick of the 2023 draft class, Wicks has been a surprisingly busy player when given the opportunity. Curious as to how busy, I dove into his TPRR earlier this week and discovered that since 2023, Wicks has been targeted on 21.5 percent of his routes, which ranks 33rd amongst 92 receivers over that span (min. 50 targets). It ranks closely behind Jayden Reed, who has a TPRR of 22.7 percent.

In the six games he’s started in his career — including playoffs, Wicks has a TPRR of 21.1 percent.

Wicks and the Packers get a plus fantasy matchup in Week 5 against a Rams team that’s allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Per FantasyPoints.com, the Rams have also allowed eight receptions to go for 20-plus yards — the second-highest total of any team in the league. I love Wicks in this matchup, and believe there’s a chance he finally snatches a permanent role in Green Bay’s offense with a strong stretch of games during Watson’s absence.

Tre Tucker (LV, 15.2 Expected Points)

Tre Tucker has now totaled 14.4 and 15.2 expected fantasy points over the last two weeks and is averaging 19.0 fantasy points per game over that span. After seeing just five targets through the first two weeks of the season, Tucker has gone for 12-137-1 on 15 targets since Week 3 and should continue to see an increased role, with Davante Adams likely on his way out.

Per FantasyPoints.com, amongst receivers with at least 15 targets since Week 3, Tucker ranks 13th in YPRR (2.17), ninth in yards per target (9.13), and seventh in YAC/REC (4.75). He was also the first read on 11 of his 15 targets — tying Brandon Aiyuk and Tyler Lockett and ranks 22nd in TPRR (23.8 percent)

Tucker blazed a 4.40 40-yard dash at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine and also tested well in explosiveness drills. He’s clearly found a role in the Raiders’ passing game and is worth a dart throw as a WR3/WR4 in a tough matchup against the Broncos.

Like Wan’Dale Robinson, Tucker is also being slept on in fantasy leagues. He’s currently rostered in just 34 percent of leagues on Sleeper, but is the WR39 in fantasy points per game (11.4).

Tight Ends

Week 4 Expected Points

Player

Team

EP

FPOE

PPR

Tucker Kraft

GB

15.5

3.8

19.3

Cade Otton

TB

14.6

-3.4

11.2

Dallas Goedert

PHI

12.8

0.4

13.2

Travis Kelce

KC

12.3

3.6

15.9

Tyler Conklin

NYJ

12.1

-6.4

5.7

Pat Freiermuth

PIT

11

5.7

16.7

Colby Parkinson

LAR

10.6

-3.3

7.3

Jake Ferguson

DAL

10.3

1.6

11.9

Dalton Kincaid

BUF

10

-0.3

9.7

Dalton Schultz

HOU

9.6

-3.2

6.4

Blake Whiteheart

CLE

7.9

2.4

10.3

George Kittle

SF

6.8

7.7

14.5

Noah Gray

KC

5.8

2.2

8.0

Erick All

CIN

5.8

1

6.8

Sam LaPorta

DET

5.7

3.6

9.3

Zach Ertz

WAS

5.7

1.5

7.2

Josh Oliver

MIN

5.4

3.6

9.0

Taysom Hill

NO

5.3

9.1

14.4

Brock Bowers

LV

4.7

0.4

5.1

Cole Kmet

CHI

4.5

1.9

6.4

AJ Barner

SEA

4.2

6.5

10.7

Austin Hooper

NE

4

5.3

9.3

Darnell Washington

PIT

3.2

1.9

5.1

Drew Ogletree

IND

2.2

6.3

8.5

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 12.1 Expected Points)

Despite last week’s flop (5.7 fantasy points, TE22), I’m willing to tout Tyler Conklin as a viable streaming option again in Week 5.

For starters, the Vikings have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends this season. On top of that, Conklin also saw a season-high eight targets in last week’s loss to the Broncos and has been targeted 14 times over the last two weeks.

Conklin’s 24.0 expected points since Week 3 are the fifth-most of any tight end in the league, while his 84 routes run over that span lead all players at the position and are eight more than the next closest player. The biggest concern for Conklin is the same concern we have for all Jets and Vikings players this week.

With this game being played in London, kick-off is slated for 9:30 AM EST. We’ve seen teams struggle in these overseas games before, making fantasy points hard to come by. However, if you’re desperate for help at the position, Conklin’s volume suggests he’s developing a growing trust with Aaron Rodgers. Another week of five-plus targets should bode well for his fantasy outlook at a position that currently has just six players averaging 10-plus fantasy points per game.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.comRotoViz.comProFootballReference.comNextGenStats.NFL.com4For4.comFantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

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