What to watch for in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup playoff race at Homestead

HOMESTEAD, Fla. — The Cup playoffs move to South Florida and much will be at stake in the middle race of the Round of 8.

Joey Logano’s victory last week at Las Vegas advanced him to the Championship 4. That leaves seven drivers for the final three spots in the title race.

Here is what to watch for in Sunday’s race (2:30 p.m. ET on NBC) at Homestead-Miami Speedway:

1. Playoff field split

The gap between those in a transfer spot and those below the cutline has split the field in terms of potential strategy.

Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and William Byron are in a transfer spot heading into Homestead.

Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, reigning champion Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are all below the cutline. Hamlin is the closest at 27 points out of a transfer spot.

Blaney and Elliott both say they are in a must-win situation to advance. While Hamlin and Reddick concede it’s possible to advance on points, their focus is on winning.

Managing how aggressive to be on track is a key element for NASCAR Cup playoff drivers

A aggressive move by Tyler Reddick at Las Vegas ended his race. Kyle Larson says he continues to juggle how aggressive to be at times.

Bell (2023), Larson (2022) and Byron (2021) have won the past three races at Homestead. Bell noted that all three have to be concerned about points because at least one of those three will need to advance via points to the title race. Bell is 42 points above the cutline, Larson is 35 points above it and Byron is 27 points above the cutline.

“Plus 42 (points) sounds great until you realize every time someone wins, that cutline shrinks more, more and more, or that gap to the cutline,” Bell said. “You’re never safe and it’s going to be a battle. It’s going to be a battle all the way until the checkered flag at Martinsville and, you know, everybody knows how important those wins are.”

2. What next?

Tyler Reddick, who is 30 points below the cutline, was asked this weekend if he felt he still had a chance to advance to the title race via points.

“If we have pretty calm races from here to the last lap of Martinsville, I would say it’s probably too great a deficit,” he said, “but I feel like every freaking race in this playoffs, something crazy has happened, so I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Reddick, who will start from the pole, is right about the chaotic nature of these playoffs.

Last week at Las Vegas, his car rolled over after triggering a crash that included fellow playoff drivers Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Joey Logano, who advanced to this round after Alex Bowman’s disqualification, won that race.

These playoffs also have seen much of the field wreck at Talladega, Kyle Larson have bad races in the first two races before later winning in the same round, and various pit road woes by multiple drivers.

In this race last year, Larson ran into the barrels at the entrance of pit road. Also, Bell rallied from deep in the field to win.

So, it makes one wonder what’s to come in this race.

3. Seeking to regain strength

While Denny Hamlin has scored top-10 finishes in four top 10s in the last five races, those have not been smooth runs for the Joe Gibbs Racing team.

Pit road problems have cost him spots in two of the last four races (Kansas and Las Vegas). He has scored one point in the last seven stages. Hamlin has led only five laps in the playoffs.

Good news, bad news for NASCAR Cup teams ahead of Sunday’s playoff race at Homestead

The Cup playoffs continue at Homestead-Miami Speedway at 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC.

“It’s certainly not the best time to not be on our A-game, all around, myself included,” said Hamlin, who is 27 points below the cutline. “The good news is, we still have a chance even this late in the game.”

What will it take to turn around his fortune?

“We have to perform like we’re capable of, and we just haven’t shown that in quite some time,” Hamlin said. “So, where do I start? I make sure no matter what, I’m giving the team the information they need. I make sure I’m putting in the work during the week to get better. I make sure that, you know, I execute on the race track and give the team a better opportunity to succeed. There’s lots of things in my bucket of improvement that I need to get out.”

As for the pit crew? The team has not made any changes to the unit.

“You ride with the group you got,” Hamlin said. “They’re certainly in a slump, for sure. But, we got to ride it out and feel like that’s the best group we can put on pit road. … They were the best pit crew for the first quarter of this year. But, certainly, it’s been a lot of different issues on pit road. Pretty much most times we come down (pit road), it’s been different things, so can’t really pinpoint one consistent problem we’ve had. So, just have to see where it goes.”

4. Team Penske’s teamwork

One of the points made this season is how much closer Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and their teams have been working together this season. That’s not to say there were issues in the past, it’s just that the working relationship is better than ever.

“The two teams definitely work a lot together lately on performing setups,” Logano said. “ … I think Blaney and I work really well together off the racetrack and on the racetrack. And that relationship has only grown even more so after his championship, which I think is great. And it seems like we’ve been able to really be open with each other.”

Team Penske has won the past two Cup championships. Logano won the title in 2022 and Blaney won it last year.

With Logano already in the title race, the focus turns to getting Blaney back to the championship event.

“I think Joey and I work really well together and we always have,” Blaney said. “I feel like that’s just gotten better year after year. I feel like as you get older, he and I became the two veteran guys on the Penske side over there, It’s like, alright, we have to really rely on each other, how do we really kind of take the reins.”