Wheels falling off at Red Bull and they only have themselves to blame

On points scored alone, the Mexico City Grand Prix was Red Bull’s equal worst race weekend of 2024. Not only did Max Verstappen lose 10 points in the championship to Lando Norris, the team have slipped to third in the constructors’ standings behind Ferrari and McLaren and look likely to stay there. The execution, though, was far worse than that.

To list the catalogue of errors and embarrassments: Verstappen pushed even his own interpretation of driving standards to extremes, being penalised with two separate 10-second time penalties in incidents that Norris called “expected” and “dangerous”. Verstappen finished nearly a minute down from winner Carlos Sainz – even without the penalty that would have been nearly 40 seconds.

Meanwhile, the beleaguered Sergio Perez suffered arguably the lowest point of his Red Bull career. Having failed to make it beyond Q1 yet again, he stopped so far forward of his marks on the grid that he earned a five-second time penalty. Once the race began, he clumsily collided with Liam Lawson – who could replace him at Red Bull – ending up with a hole in the sidepod of his car. Red Bull brought him in late on for fresh tyres in an attempt to claim the fastest lap but even that failed; he was nearly 0.9sec off Charles Leclerc’s benchmark as he finished last on the road. All in his home race. Since his last podium in China, Perez has scored just 65 points compared to Verstappen’s 252.

Red Bull’s significant slump ends a year of turmoil for the team, with Christian Horner being investigated for inappropriate behaviour and Adrian Newey’s departure after nearly 20 years. Yet when all that was happening Red Bull were winning races, now they look to be the third fastest team and have scored just 104 points since the summer break, compared to Ferrari’s 192 and McLaren’s 200.

You can view this weekend one of two ways when it comes to Red Bull’s recent form, with no win in 10 rounds having won seven of the first 10. Either this is a blip from their recent mini-recovery that saw Verstappen take second in Singapore and third (plus a sprint win) in Austin. Or that revival was actually a blip and they have only partially escaped the depths of their malaise, culminating in their worst weekend since Monaco.

The latter is probably a realistic assessment, with Verstappen’s brilliance – whatever you think of his driving style – masking the team’s longest winless run since 2020. Indeed, Verstappen’s on-track aggression is a direct result of the car not being good enough as Ferrari and McLaren jumped ahead. F1 is very up and down at the moment, yes, but Red Bull are experiencing more downs than ups.

One mercy is that Verstappen should still win the drivers’ championship, despite the Mexico setback. Indeed, if Norris manages to take 10 points from his lead in Brazil later this week, then in Qatar and Las Vegas, the Dutchman will take a 17-point advantage into the final race in Abu Dhabi. The second mercy is that Mercedes have slipped back out of contention for race victories too, making Verstappen’s job a little easier.

Yet even if Verstappen does claim a fourth successive championship for Red Bull, there should be serious concern at the team. In 2025 the regulations are largely a carry over from this year which makes a jump in performance difficult to achieve. This is especially true as we come towards the end of the current regulation set, where any breakthroughs tend to become smaller and smaller.

Given how tight it is at the front, Red Bull are not doomed to failure but that 22.4sec win (a 1-2 finish, no less) in the season opener feels like a lifetime ago. The current performance baseline is not good enough. If Verstappen is driving as well as he is and has only scored four podiums in the last 10 rounds, what does that say about the car?

Another perpetual concern is the mare’s nest that they have made over who partners the Dutchman. It has been painfully clear for a year that Perez does not perform to the level the team need anywhere near often enough. In 2022 and 2023 their advantage was big enough and their competitors few enough that it made little difference and they won both championships comfortably.

This year it could be the difference between them winning the constructors’ championship and finishing third in it. Heading into 2025 with question marks over the car’s development and performance is worrying enough, but having one driver who looks like he needs to be put out of his misery is a problem that must be addressed.

Perez’s suffering alongside Verstappen may end sooner rather than later, with Lawson impressing in the sister RB car. Yet putting Lawson alongside Verstappen would repeat the same mistakes they made when prematurely promoting Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon. Partnering Verstappen can simply destroy a driver of any experience. By the end of the year Lawson will have competed in just 11 grands prix. The Kiwi may well end up being far better than Perez – and what have they got to lose? – but could as easily be out of a seat in short order. The second seat at Red Bull is not the place to learn your craft.

It is not too extreme to say that their decision to pass up on the talents of Mexico winner Sainz earlier this year is insane. It could cost them dearly next year if they want to remain championship contenders. Yes, Sainz may have ended up a little too close for comfort at times to Verstappen, but think of the discomfort that Perez has caused this season. And what is the ultimate aim of the team – winning trophies or ensuring that Verstappen has an easy ride?

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