Will Pat Riley and the Heat bend to Jimmy Butler’s demands?

There’s been a lot of chirping in NBA circles about the future of Miami Heat veteran Jimmy Butler. On Tuesday morning, Chris Haynes reported on X that the Memphis Grizzlies and a few other teams received word that Butler has no interest in being there. One of those other teams? Sources told me the Milwaukee Bucks were also told to back off.

So, Butler wants out of Miami. But he doesn’t want to play for the team with the second-most wins in the stacked West. Or for the team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. What is it that he wants? This is obvious. Money. Here’s what I wrote in December when this drama started brewing:

You can eliminate the word “likely” from that last sentence: The Heat won’t pay Butler. We know at this point he doesn’t want them, and they don’t want him. The only question now is whether Pat Riley gives Butler what he wants: A trade to his preferred destination, a team with aspirations to win and a willingness to give him that long-term contract.

The Phoenix Suns are quite clearly that team. The Suns have widely been reported to be at the top of his list. The only question is really whether Phoenix can find a new home for Bradley Beal, who has a no-trade clause that gives him the power to decline any trade. I said on my podcast this week that the Heat and Suns are working to find three- and four-team trades to find a solution. But so far they’ve come up empty.

Beal’s on the books for $50.2 million this season, $53.7 million the next and $57.1 the year after that. It’s enormously difficult to trade for any player making that much money during the season, due to restrictions on aggregating salaries, roster limits and what not, never mind for a player whose skill-set has diminished. Beal is 31 and no longer in his prime. While he’s still a knockdown shooter, he lacks the same quickness generating shots off the dribble that he did in his All-Star seasons. And he’s never been much of a playmaker or a defender.

All it takes is one team though. Maybe a rebuilding team is willing to take on that money for another two-and-a-half years if it means also receiving Phoenix’s unprotected first in 2031, plus some other goodies. It could be worth the hit. But still, as much as it’s a challenge finding a suitor for Beal, the Heat would still also need something of value.

Miami’s leverage gets dinged though if teams like the Bucks and Grizzlies are indeed being told no bueno on Butler. Does Riley bend to Butler’s demands and work out a deal for Phoenix? Does he hold firm and let Butler walk in free agency? Or does he take the best available offer, even if it’s from a team Butler isn’t thrilled about?

Normally, a team would back out if it didn’t have some assurance Butler would sign long term. That’s what happened last year when the Sacramento Kings didn’t trade for Pascal Siakam. The Kings had been informed Siakam didn’t want to be there long term.

But this is where it gets interesting. Teams like the Bucks or Grizzlies could see Butler as a one-year rental, à la Kawhi Leonard in Toronto. After winning a title, the Raptors wanted to keep Kawhi and couldn’t. But the franchise ultimately got what it wanted for a lower cost. Similarly, the price for an All-NBA-caliber talent like Butler is quite low at this time. Even if he walks this summer, couldn’t he be worth a shot if it boosts a team’s title chances?

Ultimately, Butler’s leverage only goes so far. If no deal meets Miami’s standards, Riley could simply let the season run its course and allow Butler to walk in free agency. The financial flexibility that comes with Butler’s departure is significant — nearly $50 million below the tax line and over $50 million in expiring contracts on their books. That kind of cap freedom gives Miami plenty of options to retool in the offseason. This is why Riley won’t rush into a trade.

And besides the Suns, other teams aren’t in a big rush either. Butler hasn’t performed at a superstar level since the 2023 playoffs. He is 35 and has made it abundantly clear that his next contract is driving this next move, not winning his first ring. The Bucks, Grizzlies or other teams might have some interest but could ultimately determine they don’t want him enough to bother pulling the trigger.

No matter how many stunts get pulled between now and the trade deadline, the reality is that Butler could soon find himself stuck between a Heat team ready to move on and a league no longer willing to bet on his brand of drama.