Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, Betting trends and stats

Aaron Judge broke out of his postseason slump and the New York Yankees grabbed a stranglehold on the American League Championship series with a 6-3 win over the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday Night. With the Yankees up two games to none, the series shifts to Progressive Field in Cleveland for Game 3 Thursday evening.

The likely American League MVP had just 1 RBI in the playoffs but came to life on Tuesday Night with a sacrifice fly in the 2^nd inning that drove in one and then the 2-run blast in the 7^th to put the Bronx Bombers in control of this series. Yes, New York held serve and now Cleveland gets to play potentially three straight in their park, but the data suggests the Guardians are now a longshot to advance to the World Series. Of the 91 teams that have taken a 2-0 series lead in a Best of 7 series, 76 (83.5%) have gone on to win the series.

Clay Holmes came on in relief of Gerrit Cole in the 5^th inning and got the win for New York. Tanner Bibee got just four outs for the Guardians allowing 5 hits and 3 runs (2 earned) and took the loss.

Clarke Schmidt will take the mound for the Yankees in Game 3 Thursday Night. The Guardians have yet to announce their starter.

Lets dive a little deeper into Game 3 and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first-pitch, projected pitching matchup, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Yankees @ Guardians – Game 3

● Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2024
● Time: 5:08 PM ET
● Site: Progressive Field
● City: Cleveland, OH
● TV/Streaming: TBS, TruTV, MAX

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ALCS Game 3 odds for Yankees @ Guardians

The latest odds as of Wednesday:

● Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians (-105), New York Yankees (-115)
● Spread: Guardians +1.5 (-185), Yankees -1.5 (+150)
● Total: 7

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Probable starting pitchers for New York @ Cleveland

● Thursday’s pitching matchup (October 17): Clarke Schmidt vs. TBD

○ Guardians: TBD – It will more than likely either be Matthew Boyd or a Bullpen Arm who starts for Cleveland. Boyd has started 2 games and pitched 6.2 innings of 5-hit shutout ball with 10 Ks this postseason. The Guardians’ bullpen has thrown 36.2 innings in the playoffs and possesses a 2.77 ERA.

○ Yankees: Schmidt (0-0, 3.86 ERA) – started a game in the Division series against KC allowing 4 hits and 2 earned runs while recording 4 strikeouts over 4.2 innings.

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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of ALCS Game 3: Yankees @ Guardians

• Teams winning the first two games of a best of seven series have gone on to win the series 83.5% of the time.

• After cashing the Game Total UNDER in each of the games against Kansas City, each of the ALCS games have hit the Game Total OVER.

• The Yankees are 3-3 ATS this postseason.

• The Guardians are 2-5 ATS and 4-3 to the OVER this postseason.

• Aaron Judge is now 3-18 (.167) with 1 HR and 4 RBIs this postseason.

• Jose Ramirez is 4-24 (.167) with 2 HR, 1 2B, and 3 strikeouts this postseason.

• Steven Kwanhas at least one hit in each of Cleveland’s 7 playoff games. He is 13-29 (.448).

• New York and Cleveland have met in the playoffs 6 times: 1997, 1998, 2007, 2017, 2020, and 2022. The Yankees 4 of the 6 series including the most recent series – the 2022 ALDS 3 games to 2. Overall, the Yankees are 16-12 against Cleveland in the playoffs.

Playoff Histories for Cleveland and New York

• Guardians: Cleveland has an all-time record of 63-62. They have appeared in the World Series 6 times – 1920, 1948, 1954,1995, 1997, and 2016 – and lost 6 times.

• Yankees: The Yankees are looking to claim their 41^st AL Pennant. New York has won 27 World Championships. Their last World Series victory was in 2009. They have been to the playoffs 57 times.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for Game 3 of the ALCS between Cleveland and New York

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday’s Game 3 between the Guardians and the Yankees:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline

• Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Run Line

• Total Runs: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the OVER of 7 Total Runs

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!

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